How Russia Missed the Threat as Ukraine Launched Its Offensive

 LONDON/KYIV, Aug 17 (Reuters) - In the hours leading up to Ukraine's major offensive across Russia's western border, Moscow showed no signs of alarm. 

At midnight on August 6, the Russian defense ministry shared positive news: over 2,500 members of a regiment responsible for capturing a town in eastern Ukraine were to receive state awards for heroism. Later that morning, as Ukraine launched its largest invasion of Russia since World War II, the ministry released a video of General Valery Gerasimov, the commander of Russia's military operations, visiting another combat zone in Ukraine. He was shown receiving briefings from commanders and setting "tasks for further actions," according to the ministry.

The footage did not indicate the precise timing of the visit but showed no signs of concern or awareness regarding the unfolding events in Russia's western Kursk region. These developments threatened to disrupt Gerasimov’s plans and potentially alter the trajectory of the two-and-a-half-year conflict.

The notion that Ukraine could reverse the dynamics and launch an offensive into Russia, a much larger neighbor, seemed unimaginable to most observers before last week. This surprising operation has prompted scrutiny of Russia’s surveillance capabilities, the quality of its border fortifications, and the effectiveness of the forces stationed there. 

"The Russians experienced a significant intelligence failure," French military expert Yohann Michel, a research fellow at the IESD institute in Lyon, remarked in an interview.

With Ukrainian forces retreating in eastern Ukraine—one of the most crucial sectors of the front line—Moscow may have assumed that Kyiv would not risk a high-stakes gamble, especially given the uncertainty of its success, Michel noted. 

"I can see why the Russians might have found it hard to believe such a significant development could occur," he said.

Ukraine's objectives in Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the eastern Donetsk region. However, fighting in Donetsk has intensified recently, and the risks for Ukraine are growing as it attempts to maintain its position in Kursk.