Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump made a significant error by choosing Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. Trump's overconfidence in his bid against President Joe Biden led him to focus too much on maintaining the MAGA legacy.
The extent of Trump's miscalculation became apparent when Biden withdrew and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, shifting the dynamics of the presidential race.
Harris then selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and their campaign has been gaining positive momentum despite widespread Republican criticism of Harris.
As the election landscape and polls shifted, Trump was left with Vance. This choice reflects a recurring issue for Trump: his overconfidence in his own handpicked candidates and the Republican tendency to go along with his decisions without question.
Now, Trump's overconfidence has put both the election and his legacy in jeopardy, while inadvertently giving Democrats the momentum they're relishing as the Democratic National Convention kicks off on Monday. Once again, Trump is proving to be his own worst enemy.
A month ago, the race seemed all but decided. Biden was struggling from a disastrous debate performance and record-low approval ratings, with polls showing dire numbers for him.
Meanwhile, Trump had just survived an assassination attempt and was seen raising a fist to his supporters after being injured in the ear just days before the Republican National Convention. It looked like Trump was headed for a decisive victory.
Then, within a few weeks, Trump selected Vance as his running mate, Biden withdrew from the reelection race, and Harris took charge of the Democratic ticket, quickly shifting the dynamics of the election.
Trump's campaign was plagued by chaos, as evidenced by his erratic speech in North Carolina.
Harris effectively reclaimed the ground Biden had lost to Trump. Although polling remained relatively close between her and Trump, there was a prevailing sense that she faced a tough challenge in restoring the trust that had eroded during Biden's tenure.
Since then, Harris has steadily gained ground in the polls, gradually but significantly pulling ahead of Trump.
To illustrate this dramatic shift, on July 15, Trump had an implied 66.2% chance of winning the November election. Since then, his odds have dropped by over 20 percentage points, leaving him solidly behind Harris.
A month ago, if you had asked me about the current polling, I would have predicted Trump was well ahead. Even knowing that Harris would be stepping in, I probably wouldn’t have adjusted that view significantly.
So, why is Harris performing so well? The answer is Trump.
This dramatic shift in momentum prompts one key question: What are the Democrats doing right?
From my perspective, not much. Harris' gradual improvement in the polls can largely be attributed to her avoiding major missteps and the dissatisfaction with Biden among Democrats.
The real boost for the Democrats, however, comes from Trump being a significant electoral liability.
Aside from his unexpected 2016 victory, Trump has consistently hurt the GOP’s electoral prospects since he first entered public office.
In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats successfully reclaimed the House of Representatives.
In 2020, after Trump lost the presidency, the Republican Party also lost the Senate and failed to regain control of the House. Additionally, Democratic House candidates performed better than Biden nationally, highlighting that the top of the ticket might have been the issue.
The 2022 midterms confirmed this theory: what was anticipated as a major Republican wave turned out to be a mere ripple. Although Republicans did regain control of the House, they fell short in the Senate, largely due to Trump's ineffective endorsements across the country.
Now, in 2024, Trump’s overconfidence and narcissism could once again undermine Republican electoral prospects. By selecting Vance and consolidating the Republican National Committee behind himself, Trump has diminished the broader appeal the GOP could have leveraged from Biden’s troubled presidency.
Instead of fostering Republican unity and enhancing electoral influence, Trump has opted to deepen divisions within his own party, effectively turning the GOP into the party of Trump. Rather than reaching out to the factions within the GOP that are skeptical of him, Trump has chosen to drive the movement further away from the foundational principles of his 2016 campaign.
Trump and Vance’s weak electoral appeal has done little to bolster Republicans, even as the highly liberal Walz remains largely ineffective against them. Although Harris has her own challenges as a presidential nominee, they pale in comparison to the baggage Trump carries into the election.
This chaotic campaign opens the door to further electoral difficulties. While Trump could still win, a loss in 2024 would severely damage his legacy, marking the fourth consecutive election where he has undermined his party’s chances.
Ultimately, the biggest advantage for Democrats has been GOP incompetence and Trump’s own ego. This has been the case throughout.
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