Why Did Ukraine Launch a Cross-Border Attack on Russia?

 Russian President Vladimir Putin meets cabinet members after the Ukrainian attack in Kursk

When Kyiv initiated a cross-border raid into Russia's Kursk region, adjacent to Ukraine, some military experts wondered: “Why?”

One of Ukraine’s major challenges on the battlefield is its limited manpower. With Russia advancing toward the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk and having a larger number of soldiers, sending hundreds of Ukrainian troops into Russian territory might seem counterintuitive to some.

However, this perspective is not universally shared.

“It wasn’t accidental,” war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets stated in a Facebook post. “It’s clearly part of a deliberate plan."

Military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov concurred, telling the BBC that Russia had been compelled to redeploy some of its troops from the front line in eastern Ukraine. “Official reports show a significant decrease in Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area,” he noted. “This suggests that the aircraft carrying them are now stationed elsewhere in Russia.”

While it is unlikely that Ukraine aims to occupy Russian territory, the raid appears to be successfully drawing Russian forces away from the front lines. Historical context may also be influencing the situation. Russia previously launched a major cross-border offensive into Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, which has since slowed following the U.S. granting Ukraine permission to strike targets within Russia. 

Concerns about a similar attack in the northern Sumy region have been growing over the past three months. Given persistent Western apprehension about the war's escalation, it is plausible that some level of approval was given for this operation on Russian soil.

Generally, senior Ukrainian officials have remained tight-lipped about the attack, with the president’s office responding with, “No comment, yet.”

While similar incursions have occurred before, this is the first instance of regular Ukrainian forces being involved in such an operation. Meanwhile, the discussion is more active across the border.

Russian military channels quickly reported the assault, which involved hundreds of troops along with multiple rocket and drone attacks. Local officials were prompt in announcing casualties and evacuations, with neighboring regions offering to shelter those displaced. A state of emergency has been declared in the affected areas.

Russia's Defence Ministry confirmed the redeployment of troops toward Sudzha, a town in the Kursk region. At the top levels, President Vladimir Putin was briefed by his security chiefs, while his Foreign Ministry spokesperson condemned the attack as "barbaric" and "terrorist."

The response from Russia indicated a sense of being caught off guard in a conflict it had become all too familiar with. Up until yesterday, Russia had been steadily gaining territory and outnumbering Ukrainian forces. Now, however, the situation has shifted.

The Kremlin is using the assault as justification for continuing its "defensive" war effort. Military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov notes, "There are more questions than answers from the events in the Kursk region."

For Ukraine, if this operation manages to stall or even thwart a major Russian attack in the north, it will be seen as a success. President Zelensky emphasized in his evening address, “The more pressure is exerted on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine, the closer peace will be. Just peace through just force.”